Week 8 odds in the NFL feature an AFC West clash at Mile-High between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos. The defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are atop the division with a 6-1 record while the Broncos are at the bottom with a 2-5 mark.
That said, Denver has done a good job of keeping things closer than expected in this rivalry over the last couple of years. NFL odds opened with Chiefs as 8.5-point favorites before that number quickly slimmed to -7.5.
Here are my best free NFL picks for Chiefs vs. Broncos on October 29, and make sure to also check out our favorite Patrick Mahomes props.
Chiefs vs Broncos odds
Chiefs vs Broncos predictions
The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a 31-17 victory against the Chargers in Week 7 to improve to 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in their last six games. They also faced the Denver Broncos just two weeks ago at Arrowhead and beat them 19-8 to cover as 10.5-point faves.
What was most surprising about that contest was that the Chiefs generated just 19 points against Denver’s atrocious defense. That said, the Broncos did surrender 389 yards and were fortunate that the Chiefs went just 1-5 in the red zone.
The Broncos have really dropped off on defense and rank last in the league in EPA/play while sitting 30th in success rate. They’ve been terrible against both the run and pass, allowing a league-high 5.5 yards per carry and also ranking dead last in opponent passer rating (114.2).
Patrick Mahomes was let down by a subpar group of wide receivers earlier in the year but they’re starting to do a better job of catching the football. While early reports indicate that we could see snow with temperatures approaching freezing on Sunday, winds aren’t expected to have a big impact and Mahomes has historically performed well in cold weather
Mahomes threw for a whopping 321 passing yards in the first half against the Chargers last week and he should shred a Denver defense that ranks 31st in the league in pressure rate (16%) and yards allowed per pass attempt (7.9). That Denver secondary could be even worse with veteran safety Kareem Jackson suspended until Week 13 for a string of illegal hits.
Although Russell Wilson has played better this season under Sean Payton, he’s performing around the league average and was held to a pathetic 95 passing yards against the Chiefs in Week 6. Granted that was with extreme winds at Arrowhead but while Wilson should have some positive regression I’m still not expecting him to have much success against a Chiefs defense that is third in the league in dropback EPA.
To be fair, Kansas City has been significantly worse against the run and just lost its best linebacker Nick Bolton to a wrist injury, while the Broncos have been running the ball very well lately. However, if the Chiefs jump out to an early lead, they can force the Broncos to become one-dimensional and abandon that ground game.
My best bet: Chiefs -7 (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Chiefs vs Broncos same-game parlay
Chiefs -7.5 (-105)Under 46.5 (-125)Travis Kelce Over 75.5 receiving yards (-110)50% boost available
+625 +937 at bet365
The total of 46 is a bit surprising considering that these teams combined for just 27 points two weeks ago (albeit with messy conditions) plus the fact that freezing weather is expected for the weekend. The Chiefs are also limiting foes to just 15 points per game and the Under has cashed in eight of their last 11 contests.
Even last year when the Broncos had a stingy pass defense, they surrendered the fifth-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends. This season they’re allowing a league-high 69.4 yards to the position and surrendered 124 yards to Travis Kelce in Week 6.
Kelce was banged up at the beginning of the year but the eight-time Pro Bowler is still the best in the business and has gone off for 21 catches and 303 yards in the last two weeks. If it ends up snowing in this contest, it’s even more likely that Mahomes relies on the sure-handed Kelce over his butter-fingered targets at receiver.
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Chiefs vs Broncos spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Chiefs as 8.5-point chalk but money quickly came in on the Broncos, knocking that number down to -7.
The lookahead line for this contest had the O/U at 44.5, but when that total hit the board on Monday, it was up to 46.
Kansas City opened its season with an upset loss at home against the Lions. That loss has aged pretty well in hindsight since the Chiefs gave the game away with a slew of key drops and the Lions currently boast a 5-2 record. Since then, the Chiefs have rolled off six straight wins, going 5-1 against the spread during that span.
The Broncos are coming off a 19-17 win against the Packers but they are still just 2-5 straight up and 1-5-1 ATS on the year. Last year they were anchored by a stingy defense but possessed the lowest-scoring offense in the NFL despite adding Wilson at quarterback. That offense has improved somewhat under new head coach Sean Payton but still ranks a modest 16th in EPA, while the defense has turned into the league’s worst unit.
The Chiefs have won 16 straight games in the head-to-head against the Broncos, including 12 consecutive games with Mahomes at QB. While the Broncos have gone 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, their defense is significantly worse this season compared to the last couple of years.
