The role of Indianapolis Colts quarterback has recently had a turnover rate on par with the big-screen portrayal of Batman. But, much like the film franchise finding its best Bruce Wayne in Robert Pattinson, the Colts have their best quarterback since Andrew Luck in Matt Ryan.
The veteran QB joins a talented team with a mighty big chip on its shoulder after watching its postseason plans go POOF! at the hands of the Jaguars in Week 18. The Colts’ NFL odds project a playoff year in Indy, but is this team built for much more in 2022?
Here’s our Indianapolis Colts 2022 betting preview.
Indianapolis Colts futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +2,500 |
| To win conference | +1,250 |
| To win division | -125 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 10 (Over -110) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes -175/No +155 |
Best futures bet: Win AFC Championship +1,250
Before the Colts blew the final two games of 2021 and watched their ticket to the tournament go bye-bye, they were that one team that no one wanted to play in the playoffs.
A dominating rushing attack and opportunistic defense gave other AFC clubs the heebie-jeebies, especially with Indianapolis going blow-for-blow with some of the NFL’s elite. It was quality of QB that separated the Colts from the next tier of teams, and now with Ryan in the room, Indy is a live sleeper to win the AFC crown.
Thoughts of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady can’t help but come to mind with Matt Ryan’s arrival in Indianapolis. This is a quarterback who “BabyBjörn’d” the Falcons to seven wins last season – perhaps a greater accomplishment than his 2016 MVP season.
If the Titans can win 12 games and earn the top seed in the AFC, this year’s Colts can once again put fear in the conference’s top contenders.
Indianapolis Colts betting overview
What will win bets: Matty Ice
Ryan wasted little time getting deeply entrenched in the Colts’ systems and working on his chemistry with top target Michael Pittman. Everything coming out of Indianapolis has been extremely positive about his transition and the instant impact he has on the locker room, from OTAs to the opening days of training camp.
Ryan has the best setup he’s had in years, going from a floundering franchise in Atlanta with a bad offensive line to a team built around an elite passer who retired four years ago. He felt the fourth-most pressure among QBs last season and has much better pass protection in Indy… not that it matters. Ryan has constantly been one of the best all-time when throwing under duress and gives this offense the added pop to put the point spreads to bed each week.
What will lose bets: Defensive downtick
The Colts ranked out No. 8 in DVOA at Football Outsiders, thanks in large part to an AFC-high 33 takeaways (19 INTs, 14 FR). Funny enough, all that chaos didn’t stem from a feverish pass rush like most high-takeaway teams, with Indianapolis dialing up a pressure rate of just 18.1% and recording 33 sacks. Generating that level of takeaways is tough to do year over year, so regression is expected.
The stop unit lost coordinator Matt Eberflus to Chicago and brought in veteran DC Gus Bradley, who injected venom into the Raiders pass rush last season, and brings new addition Yannick Ngakoue from that Vegas unit. The Colts will be much more aggressive, leading to more man coverage, and that could lead to more big plays allowed after Indianapolis kept everything in front of it last season (only 43 passing plays of 20 yards or more).
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Indianapolis Colts game-by-game odds
Playing out of the AFC South, the Colts are gifted a softer schedule with Houston and Jacksonville showing up twice a year. I also project a downturn for Tennessee in 2022 and it wouldn’t shock me to see Indianapolis win five of those divisional games.
While the Colts’ calendar ranks out T-26th in standard strength of schedule, it is frontloaded with road games, sending Indy away from home in six of the first 10 outings. That said, the post-Luck Colts are a sterling 15-8-2 ATS as a visitor the past three seasons.
| 1 | @Houston | -8 | 44 |
| 2 | @ Jacksonville | -4.5 | 45.5 |
| 3 | vs. Kansas City | +3 | 49.5 |
| 4 | vs. Tennessee | -3 | 47 |
| 5 | @ Denver | +3 | 45 |
| 6 | vs. Jacksonville | -7 | 46 |
| 7 | @Tennessee | +2 | 46.5 |
| 8 | vs. Washington | -5.5 | 45.5 |
| 9 | @ New England | +1.5 | 43.5 |
| 10 | @ Las Vegas | +1 | 47.5 |
| 11 | vs. Philadelphia | -3 | 47.5 |
| 12 | vs. Pittsburgh | -6.5 | 44 |
| 13 | @ Dallas | +3 | 48.5 |
| 14 | BYE | ||
| 15 | @ Minnesota | +2 | 48.5 |
| 16 | vs. L.A. Chargers | -2.5 | 50 |
| 17 | @ N.Y. Giants | -3.5 | 43.5 |
| 18 | vs. Houston | -7.5 | 44.5 |
Indianapolis Colts pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
The Colts are a good team that I think will win their division (possibly easily), but I do believe their is a limited ceiling to this team in comparison to the other top tier teams in their conference.
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